Business houses established manufacturing in nations where labour was cheap to maximize profits, while simultaneously providing jobs and building economies. This proved profitable as goods could be moved easily with advances in transportation. China became the world’s logistics hub. Global institutions were guiding the world order. Most were established with the backing of the US, however slowly the power of the US in these institutions receded.

The US was the world’s unofficial policeman. Its defence expenditure, economic, military and technological power was unmatched. It determined right or wrong, interfered when it felt it should and on occasions threatened others into submission. It built alliances and supported its allies, in cases respecting the concerns of its partners before itself.

Until recently, we believed that we live in an era of globalisation, where economies are interdependent and cultures integrated. As technology developed, it made the world more interconnected than ever before. Economically strong nations funded programs in weaker ones seeking to support humanity and gain goodwill.

Soft power played a role in enhancing ties and building trust between cultures and nations. However, there were tensions between nations as wars continued and then there were those that supported terrorism.

Donald Trump changed all of it as his radical steps shifted focus to protectionism and nationalism. While campaigning in Oct 2024, Trump mentioned, ‘We’re going to bring the companies back. We’re going to lower taxes for companies that are going to make their products in the USA.’

The arrival of Trump in the White House, pushing his campaign promises with vigour has begun to change global dynamics. His actions against illegal immigrants, fighting tariffs with tariffs, imposing financial penalties against nations not doing enough to stop the flow of drugs into the US and blocking USAID until its benefits to the donor are determined have shaken alignments. Added are his views on ongoing global conflicts and age-old alignments, which run contrary to many of his allies.

It supported a few nations involved in conflicts based on its own beliefs, imposing sanctions on those it considered responsible and its challengers. The deep state of the US interfered in countries and occasionally brought about regime changes to suit their interests.

With the US in the lead, global trade grew over the years. The US was the world's largest importer and also the second-largest exporter. In 2022, it imported USD 3.2 trillion in goods and exported USD 2.1 trillion. It was this trade deficit which led Trump to announce tariffs to boost local production while also claiming to hit back at nations imposing higher tariffs.

The world also observed the US pushing its views on managing global conflicts. While Trump seeks to end the Russia-Ukraine war, it continues to arm Israel to crush any opposition from its neighbours, including Gaza. NATO, the Western alliance established at the end of the Second World War, is now at risk of being sidelined. Europe, traditionally the US’s closest ally, is now facing the brunt of its displeasure. It is now being compelled to enhance its military power, as the US warns that it may not be there when needed. The tariff threat continues to hang over the EU.

Nations are evaluating how to deal with Trump and his global views. Leaders visiting Washington are preparing to counter Trump’s criticism of their nation’s policies and how it has acted against US interests. Trump has also displayed US expansionism by announcing his intent to gain control of Greenland while hinting at Canada becoming a part of it. Such views from the US were unheard of before.

The world has now begun to react to Trump’s moves. Nations are forced to reassess their current tariff regimes, in cases countering tariffs with tariffs, as also pushed to accept their illegal immigrants, many arriving shackled in military aircraft. Simultaneously, the stopping of USAID and releasing details about its so-called projects opened eyes to the quantum of interference in internal matters of nations which the deep state had resorted to. In India, it prompted PM Modi to sarcastically comment just before the budget session, ‘no attempt had been made from abroad to stoke a fire before a crucial session of Parliament.’

Simultaneously, he continues to pull the US out of global bodies which he views as being against the country’s interest. These include the WHO (World Health Organization) and the Paris Accord. Added are sanctions on the ICC (International Criminal Court) which issued arrest warrants against Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu. Global bodies, which banked on US financial backing for their survival are currently on life support. The UN sits helplessly on the sidelines.

Trump is proving that globalisation is the past. By breaking old alliances and agreements, Trump is pushing for bilateral agreements as against the current multilateral system. His announcements on commencing a tariff war resulted in a massive rout on the US stock exchange, indicating disagreements with his policies. In a single day the markets dropped to their lowest since September 2022.

Nations he threatened with tariffs have begun fighting back. In a short period, global trade would be ruled by bilateral trade agreements as against multilateral agreements.

Military alliances are facing changes. NATO is unlikely to continue in the current manner. Europe is being compelled to increase its military spending. Nations which have security arrangements with the US would need to enhance payment for US troops deployed on their soil or develop their own military capabilities.

The world is being told that the US, once the global policeman, may no longer be the same. In a period of a few months, Trump has changed world views as never before. Nations have begun to look inwards rather than outwards. His tenure has just commenced. The next few years could change the globe for a long time.

There are also signs of reversal in policies between Trump 1.0 and 2.0. In his first tenure, Trump walked away from JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), the nuclear deal with Iran, pushed through by his predecessor, Barack Obama. In his current tenure, he has written a letter to Iran seeking a re-negotiation of the nuclear deal while threatening it with military action. Naturally, the same has been rejected as no nation will accept being bullied.

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