At this backdrop, Russian President Vladimir Putin 'in principle' agrees to the Washington proposal for a 30-day ceasefire to adjourn the conflict between Kyiv and Moscow, but cautioned with several conditions where as Ukraine wants an immediate ceasefire followed by a long-standing settlement to end the war.

The Russia-Ukraine war has killed more than 95,000 Russian and 43,000 Ukrainian soldiers and dislocated millions of people since Russia launched a full-scale invasion in February 2022, and now Russia controls about 20 per cent of Ukrainian territory and has retaken control of about 70 per cent of the territory Ukraine captured in its Kursk attack in August.

What next?

The Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement has been a complex orchestra accomplished by Donald Trump’s vision for a new world order as he believes that Europe has been engaged in a prolonged war in Ukraine with its focus on Moscow by employing and using its military and economic resources. By ending the war quickly, Trump anticipates to shift Europe’s focus to align with his extensive and comprehensive strategy against China.

But, Russia’s unyielding attitude on several critical issues gives the impression that negotiations may be prolonged. Many analysts and European intelligence agencies believe that the future of the ceasefire agreement remains uncertain as Putin may be pausing to delay peace talks until at least 2026. On top, Ukraine and Europe doubt that even if Putin agrees to a temporary ceasefire agreement, he may violate the agreement like in past in 2014, when Russia breached the Budapest memorandum (under which security assurances given by Russia, U.S. and the U.K., Ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal) with its annexation of Crimea and launching a full-scale invasion in 2022.

Therefore, monitoring ceasefire is a herculean task even if an agreement happens. There is no guarantee Russia or Ukraine would respect the deal, or simply use the ceasefire to regroup, rearm and recruit people. There must be a well-built monitoring mechanism to identify and check the violations of ceasefire over 2,000km. Accordingly, all the dilemmas call for careful and detailed work and considerable give and take from both Kyiv and Moscow as well US and Europe for the success of the ceasefire agreement to achieve long-lasting and comprehensive peace.

What matters for India?

India has always been in close contact with Russia and Ukraine. Prime Minister Narendra Modi met the leaders of both countries in 2024. In July, Modi travelled to Russia and also visited Ukraine in August. During the bilateral meeting with Zelenskyy, Modi highlighted the Indian stand on resolving the conflict by means of "dialogue and diplomacy".

 In a press meeting, in February 2025 at the White House Modi clarified that "Many people are in a misconception that India is neutral, but I want to reiterate that India is not neutral; we are on a side, and that is peace." Earlier when he met Putin said that "this is not a time of war".

 Putin, in his first reaction to the ceasefire proposal, thanked Modi for his efforts to resolve the conflict. As New Delhi has balanced between Moscow and Kyiv, and both Zelenskyy and Putin are in touch with Modi, they can support him as a peace-maker and facilitator to play an effective peacemaking role in the implementation of a rational and reasonable peace formula acceptable for both parties as well addressing the concerns of US and Europe.

The success of the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement could benefit India by enhancing its major import of sunflower oil, maize and other imports like machinery, iron and steel products, boilers, nuclear reactors and food industry residues from Ukraine which are disturbed due to the war.

 It stabilizes food supplies and energy supplies with lower costs for industries and consumers in India. As a major energy supplier and defence partner, Russia could also reinforce energy exports and defence technologies to India. Furthermore, India could play a role in offering humanitarian aid and reconstruction funding for the post-conflict revival of Ukraine, demonstrating its unwavering commitment as a responsible global actor.

It is pertinent to note Poland's deputy foreign affairs minister Vladlisa Tiofil, in an interview to a TV network, revealed that Modi used his influence over Putin to avert the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Earlier in 2023 Bill Burns, then director of CIA said this in an interview to an American TV.

If the war is prolonged:

If the ceasefire proposal fails and the conflict continues, support from the U.S., European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom (U.K.) may allow Ukraine to continue fighting against Russia. The U.S. has resumed military aid and intelligence sharing to Ukraine after Kyiv approves ceasefire and also imposed further sanctions on Russian oil, gas and banking sectors which further restricts access to US payment systems, to buy Russian by other states. Also, the US has assured to carry on shipments of upgraded Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bombs (GLSDB) to counter Russian electronic jamming techniques.

E.U. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen declared an 800 billion euro program for E.U. members to strengthen their defence capability and competence after Zelenskyy’s meeting with European leaders in London in this month. At least 20 countries, mostly European and Commonwealth nations, have expressed interest in joining a "coalition of the willing" proposed this week by U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer to support Ukraine. On 15 March after a virtual meeting with 29 other world leaders, U.K Prime Minister Starmer Keir announced that military leaders would meet in London on Thursday to stand for and strengthen Ukraine’s future security if Putin refused to agree to an immediate and unconditional ceasefire.

Obstacles

The proposed 30-day ceasefire between Moscow and Kyiv is intricate and multifaceted with various impediments stand for significant challenges. Putin stipulates conditions and clarifications for talks include assurance of no NATO membership for Kyiv, elections to replace current President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, recognition of Russia’s annexation of certain regions, no military aid to Ukraine during the truce period and no foreign troops in Ukraine, Ukraine's withdrawal from territories claimed by Russia and protection for Russian-speaking citizens.

According to the United States (U.S.) government documents reviewed by Reuters, Moscow wants to ban on U.S. intermediate-range missile deployments in Europe within range of Russia and also insisting not to conduct military exercises by U.S. and other North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) forces from Eastern Europe to the Caucasus and Central Asia. The documents also refer to Moscow's aspiration for non presence of NATO troops in former communist countries like Poland and Romania.

Putin is not interested in allowing Ukrainian soldiers to peacefully withdraw from Russia's Kursk. However, in reaction to US President Donald Trump’s request to spare the lives of Ukrainian troops in a phone conversation on March 14, Putin issued an ultimatum to Ukrainian soldiers fighting in the Kursk region to surrender for their survival. It seems Russia yearns for a stronger position militarily before committing to the ceasefire. Conversely, on Saturday Zelenskyy said that Kyiv’s forces were still fighting in Russia’s Kursk region and that they were not facing an encirclement.

The most significant concern to address the peace agreement is the territorial dispute. On this issue, Latvian Defense Minister Andris Sprūds talking to CNN International said that Russia was using "salami" tactics to gain its political and strategic goals. Russia has annexed Crimea and claims control over regions like Donetsk, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia. While Russia insists on recognition of its annexations, Ukraine has never approved it. In 2023, Gevorg Mirzayan, a political scientist envisaged that the war in Ukraine will end like the Korean war with the partition of Ukraine between Russia and the West. He predicted that although this solution may be delayed, both sides will sooner or later conclude that there is no other alternative.

Now it seems once if Trump and Putin reaches the conclusion to end the war, there may be a probability to agree to a Korean solution that will leave in Russian hands all the Russian-speaking areas, a corridor to Transnistria.