New Delhi: 

According to the Trade Data release on Monday, the cumulative exports (merchandise & services) from April to February 2024-25 is estimated at USD 750.53 Billion as compared to USD 706.43 Billion in April-February 2023-24. It has an estimated growth of 6.24%. Total imports during April-February 2024-25 is estimated at USD 839.89 Billion registering a growth of 7.28 percent.

The current financial year is facing significant global challenges and businesses have undoubtedly been affected. In particular, the trade war that began after Donald Trump became the President of the United States is expected to have an impact on trade data in the coming days. However the government is confident that achieving the export target of 800 billion dollars this year will not be any difficult.

With this data the government is optimistic to cross the 800 billion dollar mark going ahead in the current fiscal. According to the data petroleum products have been the area which saw a lot of fluctuations. whereas the services sector is doing good it's growing at the rate of 14%. Besides this Rice, Marine exports has also shown good results and Coffee exports has shown extraordinary results.

Data shows that the country's total exports for February 2025 are estimated at USD 71.95 Billion, registering a positive growth of 3.16% vis-à-vis February 2024. Total imports for February 2025 are at USD 67.52 Billion, registering a negative growth of (-)11.34 per cent vis-à-vis February 2024.

Merchandise exports during this period were USD 36.91 Billion, While imports were USD 50.96 Billion.

Key Export and Import Data:

Imports of Silver (-75.04%), Gold (-61.98%), Pearls, Precious & Semi-Precious Stones (-41.61%), Coal, Coke & Briquettes, Etc. (-35.63%), Petroleum, Crude & Products (-29.59%), Iron & Steel (-23.37%), Transport Equipment (-16.93%), Newsprint (-12.43%), Artificial Resins, Plastic Materials, Etc. (-6.21%), Professional Instrument, Optical Goods, Etc. (-5.01%), Machine Tools (-3.68%), and Fruits & Vegetables (-0.93%) recorded negative growth during February 2025 over the corresponding month of last year.

Exports of Tobacco (26.76%), Electronic Goods (26.46%), Mica, Coal & Other Ores, Minerals Including Processed Minerals (24.25%), Coffee (22.32%), Rice (13.21%), Jute Mfg. Including Floor Covering (12.41%), Other Cereals (11.65%), Meat, Dairy & Poultry Products (6.7%), Carpet (4.87%), Rmg Of All Textiles (3.97%), Marine Products (3.4%), Spices (0.98%) and Fruits & Vegetables (0.87%) record positive growth during February 2025 over the corresponding month of last year.

Export Destinations:

Data reveals that the top 5 export destinations, in terms of change in value, exhibiting positive growth in February 2025 vis a vis February 2024 are the US (10.37%), Australia (76.19%), Japan (26.55%), Brazil (10.85%) and Nigeria (10.75%). While top 5 export destinations, in terms of change in value, exhibiting positive growth in April-February 2024-25 vis a vis April-February 2023-24 are the US (9.1%), U Arab Emts (5.19%), U K (12.47%), Japan (21.67%) and Netherland (3.68%).

Import Sources:

According to Trade data top 5 import sources, in terms of change in value, exhibiting growth in February 2025 vis a vis February 2024 are Thailand (145.45%), China P Rp (7.83%), Brazil (162.18%), Ireland (117.17%) and Oman (30.24%). Whereas, the top 5 import sources, in terms of change in value, exhibiting growth in April-February 2024-25 vis a vis April-February 2023-24 are U Arab Emts (29.21%), China P Rp (10.41%), Thailand (42.4%), U S A (7.23%) and Russia (4.9%).

Commenting on the Trade data, Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist and Head of Research & Outreach, at ICRA said that India’s merchandise trade deficit compressed to a 42-month low $14.1 billion in February 2025 from $19.5 billion in February 2024, largely explained by compression in imports of crude oil, gold and silver. A portion of the YoY decline in merchandise exports can be attributed to the base year effect related to the leap month. The trade deficit was also significantly lower than the average of over $23.0 billion during the first 10 months of FY2025. Given this point, we now expect the current account to witness a surplus of ~$5 billion in Q4 FY2025, equivalent to ~0.5% of GDP, in the ongoing quarter.

Engineering Export Promotion Council of India's Chairman Pankaj Chadha said that after recording positive growth for nine straight months, engineering goods exports registered a dip in February 2025, slipping 8.6% year-on-year to $9.08 billion. In cumulative terms, engineering goods exports stood at $105.84 billion in the April-February of the current financial year 2024-25 as against $98.03 billion in the corresponding period last year thus registering a positive growth of 7.9%, he added.

Recognizing future challenges he said that the big shift in US trade policy threatens to negatively impact global trade. The move has already resulted in many countries taking a protectionist approach towards trade. All indications suggest that the US could further harden its stand on tariffs which will affect the world adversely. India has been one of the few major countries that has managed to do well in exports despite various back-to-back challenges.

The Indian engineering industry has maintained growth momentum for most of the current financial year surpassing the performance of overall merchandise exports. While the medium and long-term outlook for the sector remains bright, challenges don't seem to be subsiding in the short-term as US President Donald Trump has signalled that reciprocal tariff on steel and aluminium would kick in starting April.

In the light of the above, the engineering sector hopes to continue getting government support and stay competitive globally, he added.

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