New Delhi: 

“Bangladesh is going to be the next chair of BIMSTEC,” the Daily Star quoted Khalilur Rahman, the Chief Adviser’s high representative on Rohingya and Other Priorities, as saying during a media briefing at the Foreign Service Academy in Dhaka on Wednesday. “Therefore, the heads of the member states will take this chance to meet the Chief Adviser and discuss the future course of BIMSTEC. So, we can expect that there will also be a meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.”

As India recalibrates its regional strategy in the wake of political changes in Dhaka, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely to meet Bangladesh’s interim government Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus on April 4 on the sidelines of the BIMSTEC summit in Bangkok if media reports in Bangladesh are to go by. Yunus’s Press Secretary Shafiqul Alam and Deputy Press Secretary Abul Kalam Azad Majumder were also present at the media briefing.

Meanwhile, the United News of Bangladesh (UNB) cited a source in New Delhi as saying that such a meeting is a possibility.

“It is expected that they’ll meet,” the UNB quoted the source in New Delhi as saying.

Officially, since Dhaka’s request for such a meeting last month, New Delhi has remained non-committal, saying it is under consideration. Observers believe that India’s reluctance for such a meeting was rooted in both strategic considerations and domestic political sensitivities, as it weighed the risks of engaging too closely with an interim leadership that lacks a democratic mandate and whose ascension to power remains contentious.

Bangladesh descended into political instability following the ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in August 2024. Hasina’s removal from power came after a students’ revolution that snowballed into a mass uprising against what people called her authoritarian style of governance. Her decade-and-a-half-long rule ended abruptly, leaving a political vacuum that exacerbated existing divisions and triggered a struggle for control.

The immediate aftermath of Hasina’s ouster saw the formation of an interim government led by Yunus. With Hasina taking refuge in India, relations between the two South Asian neighbours have since been tense despite a visit by Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri to Dhaka in December last year for structured foreign office consultations.

Meanwhile, the International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) of Bangladesh has ordered the extradition of Hasina and many of her associates who fled the country after the upheaval in August.

The ouster of Hasina also saw the rise of extremist Islamist elements in Bangladesh’s political landscape, leading to large-scale violence against religious minorities, particularly Hindus. India has been continuously voicing its concerns over these developments.

After he took power in August last year, Yunus uttered a lot of anti-India rhetoric. However, in a surprising turnabout, in an interview with a British media outlet last month, Yunus said that, for Bangladesh, there is no alternative to good relations with India. Yunus claimed Bangladesh’s ties with India are “very good” and “our relationship will always be very good”.

“There is no way Bangladesh-India relations cannot be good,” he said. “Our relations are close, our dependence on each other is so high and historically, politically, and economically, we have such a close relationship, we cannot deviate from that.”

On his part, Modi, on the occasion of Bangladesh’s Independence Day on March 26, extended his felicitations to Yunus and the people of India’s eastern neighbour.

“This day stands as a testament to our shared history and sacrifices, which have laid the foundation of our bilateral partnership,” Modi stated in his message. “The spirit of the Liberation War of Bangladesh continues to remain a guiding light for our relationship, which has flourished across multiple domains, bringing tangible benefits to our peoples.”

The Prime Minister stated that India remains “committed to advancing this partnership, driven by our common aspirations for peace, stability, and prosperity, and based on mutual sensitivity to each other’s interests and concerns”.

Then again, Modi extended his greetings to Yunus ahead of the festival of Eid-ul-Fitr.

“As the blessed month of Ramadan comes to a close, I take this moment to extend warm greetings and felicitations to you and the people of Bangladesh on the joyous occasion of the festival of Eid al-Fitr,” Modi wrote in his message. “Over the holy month, 200 million Indians of Islamic faith joined their brothers and sisters across the world in spending pious time in fasting and prayer. The joyous occasion of Eid al-Fitr is a time of celebration, reflection, gratitude and unity. It reminds us of the values of compassion, generosity and solidarity that bind us together as nations and as members of the global community.”

Modi further wished for peace, harmony, health and happiness for the world and expressed hope for the friendship between India and Bangladesh to grow stronger.

The reports of a possible meeting between Modi and Yunus come after the latter's visit to China last month, during which he made statements that seemed inimical to India’s interests. He invited Chinese investors to participate in the Teesta River water management project, something that was handed over to India by Hasina. Then again, in a video that went viral on social media, Yunus, while addressing China’s economic influence in his country, stated: “The seven states of India, the eastern part of India, are called the seven sisters. They are a landlocked region of India. They have no way to reach out to the ocean.”

He referred to Bangladesh as the “guardian of the ocean” for India’s northeastern region. This sparked anger in India, cutting across political party lines.

It is in light of all these that a possible meeting between Modi and Yunus will mark a pivotal moment in India-Bangladesh ties, as New Delhi seeks clarity on the new administration’s stance on cross-border security, trade agreements, and regional connectivity projects.

Bangladesh will be assuming the chair of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) following the Bangkok summit. The BIMSTEC, which came into existence in 1997, comprises seven countries lying in the littoral and adjacent areas of the Bay of Bengal - Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand. The bloc brings together 1.73 billion people and has a combined GDP of $5.2 trillion as of 2023.

India has been investing heavily in the BIMSTEC as it acts as a bridge between South and Southeast Asia. This investment is driven by strategic, economic, and geopolitical imperatives that align with India’s vision for regional stability and growth.

However, observers in India remain sceptical of a formal bilateral meeting between Modi and Yunus on the margins of the BIMSTEC summit in Bangkok.

“See, all the leaders of the bloc will be in the plenary hall at the same time,” an Indian expert on the politics and economy  the condition of anonymity. “So, they cannot avoid greeting each other. At the best, what I can see is Modi and Yunus exchanging pleasantries.”

As India and Bangladesh navigate an evolving political landscape, the probable meeting between Modi and Yunus could provide crucial insights into the future of bilateral ties. While India has traditionally maintained strong ties with Dhaka under Sheikh Hasina, the interim government’s long-term stance on key issues remains unclear. Whether this meeting leads to policy continuity or signals a shift in India-Bangladesh relations will depend on the outcomes of their discussions and the broader political dynamics in Bangladesh in the coming months.

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