New Delhi:

India awaits the start of a delimitation exercise after the completion of the next census operations. This delimitation exercise will have important implications for the redrawing of electoral constituencies and can have a direct bearing on the quantum of representation of different states in a future Lok Sabha. As a result of the 84th amendment to the Constitution, in 2002, the delimitation exercise is expected to be done after 2026. In the light of COVID-19, the census which was due to be held in 2021 could not be held and is still due. Thus, after the census exercise and the appointment of a Delimitation Commission, the exercise of redrawing boundaries of political constituencies will then begin. There are important implications of this exercise, especially in the light of the demographic changes seen in the country and the relative share of every state’s population.

The delimitation exercise due after 2026, has become the latest bone of contention between the parties opposed to the BJP in South India and the ruling party at the Centre. Tamil Nadu Chief Minister has led the campaign on what he perceived as a sword hanging over the southern states on account of a future delimitation exercise. He not only convened a meeting of all political parties in Tamil Nadu on the issue but has also written to select Chief Ministers on the matter. Union Home Minister Amit Shah has sought to assuage any fears in South India in this regard by stating in Coimbatore at a rally that after delimitation, on pro rata basis, not a single seat will be reduced in any southern state. He went on to assure that whatever increase is there, southern states will get a fair share. The controversy continues to rage as the statements are being subjected to multiple interpretations. The last delimitation exercise took into account the new population figures but did not disturb the share of seats assigned to every state. The redrawing of electoral constituencies was only done within a state. If the next Delimitation Commission were to look at the delimitation exercise on the basis of the census operation to be done in the future, would it keep in mind the changed share of every state’s population or like its predecessor retain the status quo?

If one were to go by the 2011 census, the population share of every state has witnessed major changes. The details of what changes would be warranted in states share of seats even if 2011 (and not the census that is due in the next few years) is kept in mind, would lead to major changes, The seats share of 7 states would increase, those of 10 states (including Delhi and Union Territories separately) would remain the same and 13 states would face a decline in the number of seats. The details state wise is given below in Table 1 below.

Table 1: If Lok Sabha seats were to be redistributed as per 2011 census figures

Source – Calculated by author There has been a proposal that in the new Parliament building there is an opportunity to seat 888 members in the Lok Sabha. Thus, if the number of seats were increased to 888, it is argued that the states of South and East India would not lose any seats. In pure numerical terms that may be true. What the Home minister stated would be true that no state would see a reduction in the number of seats. However, a redistribution of the 888 seats on the basis of population (even keeping 2011 census in mind) would lead to a lower percentage of seats (out of 888) for the states of Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Punjab, Goa and Manipur and a higher percentage of seats for Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand as compared to what they currently have. (Table 2).

Table 1 indicates that strictly going by population numbers (of 2011 census), South, East and North-East India would lose 25 seats. The gainers would be North. Central and West India. Tamil Nadu could well lose 7 seats, followed by 5 in Kerala, 3 in Andhra Pradesh, 2 in Odisha and 1 each in Karnataka, Meghalaya, Manipur, Goa, Telangana, West Bengal, Arunachal Pradesh and West Bengal. The states that could gain seats are 7 by Uttar Pradesh, 5 each by Bihar and Rajasthan, 4 by Madhya Pradesh, 2 by Maharashtra and one each by Jharkhand and Haryana. An implementation of a delimitation exercise strictly based on population figures could well skew the power balance further in favour of the Hindi-speaking states of northern, central and western India.

Source – Calculated by author

When one begins the process of delimitation, the discussion will need to be on whether exclusive focus would be given to the population share of each state or a balancing with other factors would be considered. If population is the exclusive factor, then clearly the percentage share of Lok Sabha seats of the states of the south and some states of the east would actually go down. One may increase the number of Lok Sabha seats and the share of all states would then increase. The question remains whether the percentage share of every state would change. A sole reliance on the population factor could alter the balance in the federal system and enhance the political domination of certain regions of the country. This could strongly breach the basic canvas of effective and equitable federal dynamics and governance.

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