New Delhi:

The trigger? A long-delayed socio-economic survey — Karnataka’s caste census — originally commissioned by CM Siddaramaiah during his previous tenure (2013–18) and shelved in political limbo until it resurfaced this year. Now, it’s become a lit match in a volatile political atmosphere. One of the office bearers of the apex body of Vokkaligas, Vokkaligara Sangh, has threatened to bring down the government if the cabinet went ahead to accept the report and implement the same. Not to be left behind, Lingayats too gave threatening signals, with Mr Shamanoor Shivashankarappa, the president of Akhila Bharat Veerashaiva Mahasabha and one of the close friends of AICC president Mallikarjun Kharge, warning that without Lingayats, the government could not be run.

In 2024 Parliament polls, Rahul Gandhi began championing his ‘Jitni Abadi Utna Haq’ mantra — a populist promise to give political representation proportionate to community population — he was aiming to rewrite the caste calculus in Indian politics. Telangana obliged him with a smooth rollout. Karnataka, however, has turned out to be a political minefield.

Why has the issue come back now?

When Mr Siddaramaiah was in Delhi a month ago, Mr Gandhi discussed the status of Karnataka caste census report, and he reportedly told Mr Siddaramaiah to go ahead with the report. Last week when the state cabinet met here in Bengaluru, a synopsis of the caste census report was circulated among cabinet colleagues to come back with their opinion this week. The meeting on Thursday remained inconclusive and the discussion was put off to the May 2 cabinet meeting.

Two reasons might have worked behind the decision to implement the caste census report. First is the nudging of Leader of opposition In Lok Sabha and Congress’ poster boy, Rahul Gandhi to implement the caste census report and the other one is Mr Siddaramaiah’s political ambition. Mr Gandhi, since the 2024 Parliament elections, has been pushing for the agenda of Jitni Abadi Utana Haq, which means giving rights and powers to people proportionate to their community size. He might have realised two things between 2014 and now. Gandhis are no longer vote catchers across the country and the Congress party, with its left-to-the-centre ideology could not emerge as a strong opponent to the BJP. So, he is keen to disrupt the existing political calculus and bring a new one to his advantage and the one that he had found was the caste census and Jitni Abadi idea along with the old narrative of empowering SC, ST and minorities. So, he wants to cling to this strategy to come back power at Centre.

In this context, he might have nudged the two Congress governments in Karnataka and Telangana to go for caste census to further strengthen the party base. Accordingly, Telangana held a caste survey last year and as a follow up to that, the government headed by Revanth Reddy has recently passed a legislation in the state legislature to increase the reservation for SC, ST, OBCs:  As per the new proposal, 42 per cent quota for BCs, 18 per cent for SCs, and 10 per cent for STs, an increase from the existing 29 per cent, 15 per cent, and 6 per cent, respectively. 

As a corollary to caste census report, Mr Siddaramaiah is also planning to recast the reservation matrix for SCs, STs, OBCs and Muslims in Karnataka proportionate to the population size. So he might even consider providing a reservation of over 70 percent to these communities together. If this comes through, Vokkaligas and Lingayats’ reservation quota will go up.

It’s a high-risk, high-reward game?

However, redistribution of power or changing the colour of the political landscape is not easy. The political power of two communities appears to be strong and tangible on the ground. Of the 224 assembly segments, only in 12-14, parties could not win without the support of Muslim community even though the caste census report pegged the population number of this community a little higher compared to that of Lingayats. One can easily count not less than 20 constituencies where Vokkaligas hold the key and in another 24-26 constituencies, Lingayats dictate the terms. If one were to consider the influence of Lingayats with the backing of a bouquet of microscopic OBCs, then the number of constituencies that would be dominated are not less than 45. And in these constituencies, Lingayats not only dominate rather contest and win from any of the three big parties.

For Rahul Gandhi, the goal is national: replicate the success of the Mandal era by empowering numerical majorities across states, thereby uniting a fractured opposition base. But for Siddaramaiah, the caste census is also a political shield and sword. With murmurs within the Congress that he may need to step down as CM in December (as per an internal rotational deal), the report gives him a chance to outmanoeuvre rivals, notably Deputy CM D.K. Shivakumar, a powerful Vokkaliga. By weaponizing the caste count, Siddaramaiah hopes to shift power away from the old guard and consolidate a loyal voter bloc that could carry him into a full second term — and beyond.
However, this manoeuvre is not without backlash. With 102 MLAs in the current assembly belonging to these two groups, their outrage is not rhetorical — it’s political muscle-flexing.

For Siddaramaiah, he wants to emulate late Devraj Urs and expand his popularity among all sections of OBCs. Devraj Urs brought a legislation of ‘land tiller is the landowner’ and disrupted Karnataka politics in the Seventies. But this time, Mr Siddaramaiah is facing strong opposition in implementing this because the 2020s are not the 1970s. The real flashpoint lies in the numbers. If Vokkaligas and Lingayats are shown to be fewer in number than previously assumed, it could justify a redistribution of political power. Parties might field fewer candidates from these two groups. Quotas might be recalibrated.

But there’s a catch. OBCs, SCs, and STs are not monolithic blocs. They are fractured into dozens of sub-castes, often with divergent interests. Uniting them under a single political narrative is far more complex than arithmetic suggests. Moreover, many of these communities are socially and economically dependent on Lingayats and Vokkaligas — especially in rural Karnataka. Political patronage flows along these traditional lines. Add to that the BJP’s recent gains among Dalits and tribals in the state, and the Congress finds itself in a potential identity crisis. 

Then there’s the timing. Siddaramaiah’s government is less than two years old, and yet it’s already navigating controversies — from land allotment scandals involving his wife to the fallout from a honeytrap scandal that embarrassed the party. The caste census, if mishandled, could be the straw that breaks the political camel’s back.

So where does this go from here?

Rahul Gandhi’s dream of a Mandal 2.0 renaissance may have launched smoothly in Telangana. But Karnataka — with its entrenched hierarchies, intricate caste equations, and rebellious partymen — could prove to be the undoing of that vision. If Karnataka fails him, then his idea may not resonate in north of Vindhyas where upper caste land-holding community percentage is very high.

The cabinet was expected to take a call on the report on April 17, but the decision has been postponed to May 2. That delay is telling. There’s growing discomfort even within Congress ranks. Implementing the report now could trigger a rebellion. Not implementing it could weaken the ‘Abadi’ pitch nationally.

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