Nilambur:

The Congress-led United Democratic Front, the opposition coalition in the state, has closed its doors in front of Anvar. It is also noteworthy that all the leaders tried not to discuss the Anvar issue at the UDF convention held on Monday. Although some media outlets reported that there was a heated argument against Opposition Leader VD Satheesan at the Muslim League leadership meeting held in Malappuram on Sunday over the Anvar issue, no such resentment was expressed by its leader Kunhalikutty, who spoke at the convention.

With the last day for filing of nominations passed, the picture has become clear about the candidates in the fray for the by-polls to the Nilambur Assembly constituency

The hot topic of discussion is the entry of PV Anvar as the Trinamool Congress candidate, whose resignation made the seat vacant. Although no one is counting on Anvar, the field is filled with discussions about how many votes Anvar will put in the box and which candidate it experience the setback.

At the same time, the UDF leadership is of the opinion that the Nilambur by-election, which is being described as the semi-final of the 2026 Assembly Elections, should have included all the anti-government elements and thereby created more rifts between the government and the LDF. It's just that no one is saying it publicly at the moment because the by-election campaign is in full swing.

The CPM's wish was to weaken PV Anvar, who had come out challenging the ruling CPM and Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan. But a senior Congress leader that the UDF took up the task with a speed that even they did not expect and made it look good. Excessive confidence is dangerous at this stage. He also said that Satheesan and KPCC President Sunny Joseph could have followed the example of leader K Karunakaran in this regard.

When MV Raghavan left the CPM in 1986, he sought refuge in Karunakaran with great apprehension. Karunakaran had the political strategy of accepting Raghavan into the UDF without showing any difficulty, as the leader who had caused the most harm to the Congress until then. Not only that, but Karunakaran also dealt a huge blow to the CPM by contesting Raghavan as an independent candidate in the League's Azhikode seat, winning it and bringing him to the assembly.

Criticism is being raised from many corners of the Congress that Satheesan has become a mere emotional creature from a leader who has learned the lessons of practical politics. There is widespread criticism that the incident once again proves Satheesan's lack of organisational skills. There was also criticism that this proves the immaturity of directly assuming the position of opposition leader without holding the KSU and Youth Congress state president positions.

Then, Raghavan was at the forefront of the UDF as a tongue that cut and tore the CPM to pieces for decades. Karunakaran adopted the same approach when the senior leader of the CPM, K. R. Gowriamma, left the CPM in 1994. It is also history that M. V. Raghavan and Gowriamma were in the UDF ministries together later.

Although the Congress has the final say in the selection of the candidate in Nilambur, there is a strong opinion in the UDF that the Congress leadership, as the party leading the front, should have communicated with Anvar before deciding on a candidate in a constituency where a by-election is being held following Anvar's resignation. If the Congress had any objection to this, it could have entrusted the Muslim League with the task.

This would have helped create a feeling in Anvar that he was also considered. There are also those who think that perhaps the issue could have gone to a more amicable election without going into the current chaos and capturing Nilambur with a large majority. But without consulting anyone, Congress leaders unilaterally declared the candidate, claiming that it was their seat.

This clearly angered Anvar. Later, Satheesan's ultimatum to Anvar complicated the issue. Although Satheesan and those around him may pretend to be happy that Anvar has been contained, even a small setback in the elections will shake the foundation of the UDF. There is also a general assessment in the UDF camps that the upper hand that the UDF had in the initial phase has been eroded. The price that the state Congress leadership will have to pay for this will be heavy. Therefore, June 23 will be a crucial day for both the UDF and PV Anvar.

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